2024 Catch Probability Data

This graphic shows catch probabilities from real fly balls at every MLB ballpark, with accurate stadium measurements using a 5-point fence drawing system. It also includes the batter/fielder who hit/caught the specific fly ball, exit velocity, launch angle, and distance traveled:

(For clarity, this model represents 50% of all fly balls hit during the 2024 MLB season. Data is gathered from Statcast and Baseball Savant. Also, fly balls with a 90-100% chance of being caught are excluded for the purpose of clearing up space)

Purpose of This Model

The purpose of this model is to visualize and analyze the catch probability of fly balls across every Major League Baseball stadium for the entire 2024 season. By aggregating Statcast data and mapping it onto custom stadium geometries, the tool allows users to see exactly where balls land relative to specific park dimensions—accounting for factors like exit velocity, launch angle, and spray angle. It employs a logistic regression algorithm to estimate the likelihood of a catch (displayed as a color gradient from green to red) and includes logic to “snap” errant data points back into the field of play, ensuring that balls recorded as hits stay within the fences while home runs clear them.

Ultimately, this interactive visualization helps identify how different stadium layouts impact defensive performance and offensive outcomes.